Europe’s pulp and paper industry has cut direct CO2 emissions by approximately 30% since Cepi launched its first decarbonisation roadmap in 2011, but reaching net zero by 2050 will require a more complex and increasingly costly mix of technologies and infrastructure, according to a new industry outlook.
The 2050 Decarbonisation Outlook, prepared by Vision Hunters for Cepi, concludes that the sector has exceeded the climate ambition established in the 2011 roadmap. Past reductions have been driven primarily by replacing fossil fuels with biomass and other renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency and modernising production assets.
Structural changes in the European paper market have also contributed. Since 2011, European paper and board production capacity has declined by approximately 9 million metric tons, while demand and production have fallen by about 13 million and 14 million metric tons, respectively, the study estimates.
Closures of older graphic paper mills have contributed to lower sector emissions alongside investments in efficiency, fuel switching and newer production assets.
Looking ahead, the report identifies a credible route to net zero through further asset modernisation, process optimisation, fuel switching, electrification and the deployment of technologies including carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), bio-CCUS, advanced drying systems and hydrogen applications.
The updated outlook projects cumulative emission reductions of 19.2 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent between 2025 and 2050, compared with 14.0 million metric tons anticipated under the earlier roadmap.
The study expects electrification to become the dominant decarbonisation lever after 2030 as fossil-free electricity becomes more widely available and new technologies mature. Access to competitively priced electricity will therefore become increasingly important to the sector’s ability to meet its climate targets.
The remaining challenge varies significantly by mill type. Stand-alone recycled-fibre and virgin-fibre paper mills, many of which continue to rely on natural gas, account for more than 55% of sector capacity and nearly 75% of current greenhouse gas emissions, according to the study.
These facilities represent a significant opportunity for further reductions through electrification, heat pumps and the replacement of fossil-fuelled equipment.
Integrated chemical pulp and market pulp mills could play a different role. Cepi estimates that capturing and storing biogenic CO2 from these operations could deliver an additional 2.5 million to 10 million metric tons of annual CO2-removal potential by 2050.
Future reductions, however, are expected to be more difficult and expensive than those achieved during the past 15 years. Investment requirements are projected to rise substantially, with spending needs peaking between 2030 and 2040 as the industry moves from relatively mature efficiency and fuel-switching measures toward more capital-intensive electrification and emerging technologies.
Mill-level investment alone will not be sufficient. The transition also depends on access to competitively priced fossil-free electricity and heat, expanded power grids, CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, sustainable biomass and a policy framework capable of supporting industrial investment.
Many of the most significant breakthrough technologies are not expected to reach large-scale deployment until after 2030.
The outlook comes as European pulp and paper producers face rising energy and carbon costs as well as growing international competition. The report says global overcapacity and intensifying competition are increasing the risk of carbon leakage and could affect the sector’s long-term competitiveness if European producers face decarbonisation costs that are not matched in competing regions.
The study concludes that the technologies and pathways required to reach net zero are increasingly identifiable. Their deployment, however, will depend not only on investments by pulp and paper producers but also on the availability of energy, infrastructure and policy conditions extending well beyond individual mills.
Cepi is the European association representing the pulp and paper industry. Through its 19 national associations, it represents about 480 companies operating 856 mills across Europe and directly employing more than 175,000 people. Based in Brussels, Cepi represents the sector before European institutions and other stakeholders.
