GreenFirst expects the lumber market to face a balance of challenges and emerging opportunities in the months ahead, as macroeconomic conditions begin to stabilize while tariff uncertainty adds new risks.
The company notes early signs of a gradual recovery in the North American housing sector, supported by easing mortgage rates and moderating price growth, which could support a demand recovery in 2026. A persistent U.S. housing shortage and an aging housing stock also continue to underpin long-term demand fundamentals.
On the supply side, constraints remain significant, especially in Western Canada where wildfire impacts, regulatory harvest limits, and mill curtailments continue to limit output. While concentrated in the West, these issues contribute to broader tightness across Canada’s lumber supply chain, including Ontario. In this environment, benchmark SPF prices have risen 8–10% year to date.
Labour shortages and inflationary pressures remain key concerns for mills across North America, driving higher costs and periodic production disruptions. Companies able to invest in modernization and efficiency improvements are better positioned to mitigate these pressures, the company said.
Tariff uncertainty now represents a major variable. GreenFirst, like most Canadian softwood lumber exporters, faces combined antidumping and countervailing duties of 35.16% following the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Sixth Administrative Review (AR6). While the company’s SPF products are generally exempt under USMCA, it noted that softwood lumber became subject to a new 10% tariff effective October 14, 2025, with the possibility of future adjustments.
The financial impact of current and future trade actions cannot yet be estimated, as outcomes will depend on the duration, scope, and potential countermeasures from Canada, as well as any mitigating industry actions. GreenFirst says it is closely monitoring these developments.
Despite the uncertainties, the company highlights ongoing efforts to improve efficiency, invest in modern equipment, and maintain responsible forest management practices. It also underscores lumber’s role as a low-carbon building material supporting long-term climate goals, positioning GreenFirst for eventual market recovery.
GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. is a forest-first business focused on sustainable forest management and lumber production. The company operates four sawmills in Ontario and manages more than six million hectares of FSC®-certified public forests (FSC®-C167905). GreenFirst believes that responsible forest practices and the carbon-sequestering benefits of lumber provide long-term competitive advantages in building materials.
