Expert Insights by Hakan Ekström

The global wood fiber market has changed substantially over the past three years.

The Global Sawlog Prices Index (GSPI) fell 1.6% in the 2Q/23 quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).

During the past three years, prices for hardwood fiber have increased at a much faster rate than for softwood fiber, resulting in the Global Hardwood Fiber Price Index jumping 44%.

Lumber trade has become more global over the past few decades with an increased flow of wood products from forest-rich countries to regions lacking domestic forests to supply the local markets.

Canada is the world's second-largest producer of softwood lumber, behind the United States. Over the past five years, production has decreased from 48 million m3 in 2017 to 37 million m3 in 2022.

Most of the world’s wood chip trade is that of hardwood chips in the Pacific Rim. In 2022, the global wood chip trade accounted for about 42 million bdmt, of which about two-thirds were hardwood chips destined for pulpmills in China and Japan.

As late as 2019, China imported almost 100 million m³ rwe (roundwood equivalents) of softwood logs and lumber to meet the growing demand for forest products in the domestic market.

The two largest log-trading regions in Europe are Central Europe (where Austria, Czech Republic, and Germany are the major importers) and Northern Europe (Finland and Sweden are the two log-importing countries).

Increased interest rates, higher inflation, and market uncertainty regarding a possible recession in 2023 resulted in reduced housing starts and decreased renovations in the second half of 2022.

Wood chip and pulplog prices rose substantially in most countries over the past year in the local currencies.

The expansion of the pulp industry in Brazil has a remarkable history.

Demand for lumber was down worldwide in the 4Q/22, relaxing prices for sawlogs down from record highs.

Finnish pulpmills and sawmills have long been dependent on imported wood raw-material to meet their wood fiber needs.

Wood raw-material costs for sawmills in North America and Europe eased in the 3Q/22 as demand and prices for lumber fell.

Prices for pulplogs and wood chips have gone up in practically all markets worldwide in the 3Q/22.

Wood raw-material costs for sawmills in North America and Europe eased in the 3Q/22 as demand and prices for lumber fell.

Wood fiber prices continued their two-year upward trend in the 2Q/22, with hardwood increasing faster than softwood.

Prices for pulplogs and wood chips increased q-o-q in early 2022 in all 19 regions worldwide as tracked by the Wood Resource Quarterly (WRQ).

A halt in Russian log exports and reduced wood demand in China contributed to a 20% decline in international softwood log trade in the 1H/22.

The world's thirst for renewable energy continues, and demand for wood pellets—mostly made from sawmill byproducts—is increasing. As a result, the total global wood pellet trade in 2021 was up 9% YoY to 29 million tons, 50% higher than in 2017.

One immediate impact of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions by Western countries has been a dramatic reduction in exports of forest products from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine.